Climate Change Impact to the River Runoff - Regional Study for the Central Asian Region

Climate Change Impact to the River Runoff: Regional Study for the Central Asian Region NATALYA AGALTSEVA Research Hydrometeorological institute (NIGMI) Uzbekistan Climate change in Uzbekistan The approach to the assessment of climate changes impact on the rivers runoff on the base of climatic scenarios: problems and solutions Climate change impact on water resources of Aral See Basin 3. The water resources monitoring Basic problems Data of monitoring show: There is a tendency to increasing of the air temperature and changes of cold and hot year seasons lengths for Central Asia territory; Climate dryness becomes more severe; 2004 year was the warmest during all period of observation There are significant variations of precipitation under their slow tendency to increasing. The complicated reaction of runoff forming zone and runoff dissemination zone to the recent climate changes and anthropogenic impacts takes place. Climate change in Uzbekistan Grid points SCENGEN and reference stations of Uzbekistan. Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan Metodology IPCC : Application of MAGICC: selection of the emission scenarios from IPCC SRES storylines Application of SCENGEN: analysis of model's uncertainty over the region and selection of the appropriate GCMs Application of statistical downscaling method: Creation of archive in grid points based on observation data (area averaged anomalies are considered as best forecasts of selected GCM). Construction of regression equations between data in grid points and station data. For construction of regional climate scenarios it is necessary to use GHG (greenhouse gases) scenarios. А1(A1B,A1T,A1FI), А2, В1, В2 GHG scenarios are describing various variants of social and economic development. А1, А2 - the scenarios describing a situation, when preference to global priorities, В1, В2 - regional B1. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan Rise in temperature°С Change of precipitation, % from norm Для оценки ожидаемых изменений месячных температур воздуха и осадков были выбраны шесть GCM моделей Six GCM models had been chosen for an estimation of expected changes of monthly air temperatures and precipitation Вывод: Усреднение ряда моделей позволяет уменьшить неопределенность сценариев Conclusion: Averaging of outputs by a few models allows to reduce uncertainty of scenarios Climate scenario design for Uzbekistan Выводы Для проведения оценки воздействия изменения климата в Узбекистане предлагается использовать региональные климатические сценарии, построенные в соответствии со сценариями эмиссии А2 (неблагоприятный ) и В2 (умеренный). На ближнесрочную (2030) и среднесрочную (2050) перспективы различия в ожидаемых изменениях температуры будут невелики, а к ...